By Naraway
In this article
Trade negotiators have described the India-US deal as close for most of 2026. The record shows a framework, a court ruling that moved the goalposts, and no signature in the reports we reviewed through mid-2026.
The Record
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 6 February 2026 | Joint statement on an interim framework; US reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to fall to 18% |
| 20 February 2026 | US Supreme Court invalidates tariffs imposed under the IEEPA |
| March 2026 | India says it will sign only after clarity on tariff rates |
| May-June 2026 | US officials describe the deal as close, with one hurdle left |
| July 2026 | President Trump says the deal is not finalised; USTR proposes additional tariffs of up to 12.5% on several countries |
Sources: Mondaq; Vision IAS summary of The Hindu; The Sun Malaysia; Reuters reporting summarised in the sources listed.
Trade Kept Moving Anyway
India's trade surplus with the US shrank in FY26 even as its exports grew, because imports from the US rose faster. The US remained India's largest export market for most of the year.
Investment Did Not Wait
FDI equity from the US into India doubled in FY 2025-26, according to DPIIT data, in a year when total equity inflows rose 18% to US$58.84 billion. The United States was also the second-largest source of new foreign company registrations in India in FY26, with ten.
Why It Matters for US Businesses
A trade deal would change duties on goods. It would not change how a US company sets up, hires or invests in India; those rules apply regardless. The investment figures suggest many US companies have stopped waiting for the deal to decide.
Part of Naraway's research series India Market Entry in 2026.
In short
India and the US issued a joint statement on 6 February 2026 setting out an interim trade framework that would cut US reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18%. On 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed under the IEEPA emergency law, disrupting the timeline. Through mid-2026, officials on both sides described the deal as close but unfinished, and in July President Trump said it had yet to be finalised. Meanwhile India's imports from the US rose to US$52.90 billion in FY26, and US foreign direct investment into India doubled.
- 6 February 2026: joint statement on an interim framework, US tariffs to 18%.
- 20 February 2026: US Supreme Court invalidates IEEPA tariffs.
- July 2026: President Trump says the deal is not yet finalised.
- India's imports from the US: US$52.90 billion in FY26, up from US$45.63 billion.
- US FDI equity into India doubled in FY26, per DPIIT data.
Sources
- India-US trade deal: recent developments, impact and what lies ahead, Mondaq
- India to sign US deal only after clarity on tariff rates, Vision IAS, summarising The Hindu
- Trump says India deal not finalised, higher tariffs possible, The Sun Malaysia
- India's US trade surplus shrinks in FY26 despite export growth, Tribune India
- FDI equity inflows rise 18% to $58.84 bn in FY26; investment from US doubles, Outlook Business
Frequently Asked Questions
Has India signed a trade deal with the US?
No final agreement had been announced in the reports we reviewed through mid-2026. A joint statement on an interim framework was issued on 6 February 2026.
What did the February 2026 framework propose?
Cutting US reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18%, according to the joint statement as analysed by law firms.
How did the US Supreme Court ruling affect the deal?
The 20 February 2026 ruling invalidated tariffs imposed under the IEEPA, changing the tariff baseline the two sides were negotiating against.
How much does India import from the US?
US$52.90 billion in FY 2025-26, up from US$45.63 billion in FY25.
Is US investment in India rising?
Yes. FDI equity from the US into India doubled in FY 2025-26, according to DPIIT data reported by Outlook Business.
